The 2029 window: why entitlement work starts now
Apartment construction starts fell to about 55,000 units in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest quarter since 2011 and about 73 percent below the early-2022 peak (CoStar). Deliveries are falling with them. A building that opens in 2029 or 2030 needs its entitlement and design in 2026 and 2027.
The supply cliff
Deliveries fell from about 695,000 units in 2024 to 531,000 in 2025 and are projected near 382,000 in 2026, with a further drop in 2027 (Apartments.com and CoStar). New supply is expected to bottom around 2027 and recover only modestly through 2031.
Where it tightens first
Analysts expect the markets absorbing the 2022 to 2024 wave fastest, among them Phoenix, Charlotte, Fort Worth and Austin, to see their tightest conditions in years by 2028 (Commercial Observer, October 2026). Low-supply markets in the Northeast and Midwest are leading rent growth now.
What it means for an owner
Entitlement and design take years, not months. An owner who reads a site and chooses its pathway now can deliver into the years when new supply is scarcest; one who waits for rents to recover first competes with everyone who waited too.
Questions
- Why is multifamily supply falling?
- Construction starts dropped sharply after 2022 on higher financing and building costs and weaker rent growth; deliveries follow starts by about two years.
Sources
- Commercial Observer, multifamily construction starts at the lowest since 2011
- Apartments.com, 2026 supply and vacancy outlook
- Commercial Observer, Sun Belt multifamily 2027 to 2028
These guides summarize the code text for general information and are not legal advice. Every site is read under the code, the overlays and the ordinances that apply to it on the day of preparation.
TECTO GROUP takes multifamily sites through these pathways for owners, from the first study through entitlement and design to a permit ready to issue. Send the address of the site under consideration.
Email lucas@tecto.group